Rugby Betting Strategies
Rugby is a competitive type of sport with millions of fans all over the world. In some ways, it resembles football, but there are enough differences to make it stand out.
All rugby matches last longer: the typical duration is 80 minutes. After the first 40 minutes, there is a 12-minute halftime, and then the remaining half of the match begins.
Also, at least in the US, the rugby team has more players, which makes for a bigger number of interesting player combinations.
The thrill of competition is easily complemented by betting. That’s why there are multiple rugby betting strategies out there, each introducing a unique approach and giving the fans a chance to win money.
Handicap betting is the most popular kind, and if you want to understand it more, here are the tips to get you started.
The Principle of Handicap Rugby Betting
In every rugby match, there is a team everyone loves and a team considered an underdog. Naturally, most punters are inclined to bet on the crowd’s favorite, which creates uneven odds and reduces the element of excitement and unpredictability.
That’s why top NZ bookmakers came up with a way to level the field and make the betting extra challenging and rewarding.
Handicap betting means that a particular rugby team receives a positive or negative point-based handicap.
Let’s say the Italian team is facing the Americans. The Americans get a -18.5 handicap, and for your bet on them to win, they’ll need to score by at least 19 points more than their opponents.
This gives an 18.5-point headstart to Italians. Such an approach makes stronger teams fight harder while giving an advantage to those who might need it.
If you manage to win, the sum of your winnings will likely be more impressive than it would have been without the handicap involved.
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Types of Handicap Betting in Rugby
There are several types of handicap betting. Let’s consider them all to give you an idea of how you can bet when watching rugby.
Traditional Handicap Betting
This is the most common approach to handicap betting in rugby, so if you’re a beginner, you might want to start with it. All the bets follow a single line, with no hidden tricks or complications. Here’s a good example:
- A rugby match between South Africa (-8.5 points) and New Zealand (+8.5 points)
- A bet on South Africa will win only if this team scores by 9 or more points
- A bet on New Zealand will win only if these guys triumph or lose by no more than 8 points
This is a simple approach, but you have to think carefully before betting on one team or the other, as the chosen margin between them makes the whole competition tricky.
Alternative Handicap Betting
This is a more complex strategy with multiple handicap lines. Let’s take a match between England and Australia. With a traditional handicap, we have, say, England with -7.5 points and Australia with +7.5 points. And this is how alternative handicap betting will work:
- Option 1:England gets -4.5 points, while Australia gets +4.5 points. The risks are lower here, but so are the rewards.
- Option 2:England gets -12.5 points, and Australia gets +12.5. The risks are higher than if you bet using a traditional approach, and the reward is bigger.
Alternative handicap is flexible, so you can tailor your risk levels and decide on a desirable sum of winnings.
Half-Time Handicap Betting
As the name itself presupposes, this type of betting covers the first half of a rugby match. If you feel certain that one of the teams will start strong while the other one will be struggling to show their best, placing a bet like this will be ideal. An example:
- New Zealand gets -5.5 points by the end of the second quarter, and the USA gets +5.5
- If New Zealand finishes the half-time leading by 6+ points, any bet on them will bring you the money.
So, you are not betting on the entire match here — you only bet on the results in the first half.
Asian Handicap at Rugby Betting
This approach to betting exists to remove the chance of a draw between the teams. Few bookmakers offer it for rugby matches, but some like the diversity. They add .5 handicaps to the teams like this:
- Ireland gets -1.75 points, while South Africa gets +1.75 points.
In this context, your bet is split into two parts: 1.5 and 2. If your team wins by 2 points, you’ll get a half-bet win for the 1.5 part. The other half will get a refund.
Now, let’s use a specific example.
- If you bet on South Africa and it loses the match by 1 point, your entire bet wins.
- If South Africa loses by 2 points, half of your stake wins (the 1.5 part), and the other half is refunded.
- If South Africa loses by 3 or more points, your entire bet loses.
You should choose teams with the narrowest winning margin to get the biggest winnings. However, this strategy is risky, so you have to understand rugby and the teams on a deep level to succeed.
Handicap Accumulators in Rugby
If you ever gambled before, you probably know what accumulator bets are. They combine multiple selections in one single bet, and if you triumph, the money prize is going to be huge.
However, all selections must win, which makes the odds extremely risky.
Let’s say you bet on these scenarios:
- Argentina to win with a handicap of -5.5
- Wales to win with a handicap of +4.5
- Scotland to win with a handicap of -7.5
If each of your selections wins, you’ll get an impressive sum of winnings. However, if even one loses, the entire bet will be forfeited.
Only the most experienced punters can handle the risks that come with handicap accumulators.
Strategies for Effective Betting in Rugby
To make most of your bets pay out, you need to employ several effective strategies. They will work regardless of whether you use handicap approaches or something else.
Analyzing the Team’s Background
Before placing a bet, you need to consider the backgrounds of both competing teams, paying attention to their short-term and long-term performance.
Has someone been injured lately? If so, this can affect the players both physically and mentally. Perhaps there were some conflicts, and the tensions are running high — this might put the whole team at a disadvantage.
Look for teams with aggressive players, check those that start showing impressive results only in the second quarter, and so on — pay attention to all the nuances.
The deeper understanding you form, the more fact-based your betting choices will be.
Considering Weather Conditions
Rugby takes place outside, so any drastic change in the weather can affect the players and match results. Take a look at these common examples:
- Strong winds negatively affect the players’ kicking accuracy
- Rains also reduce scoring opportunities as they hinder visibility and make the players feel cold and slippery
- Hot weather will make more vulnerable players tire faster
If it rains, consider betting on teams with a strong forward back. If the weather is dry, trusting teams with fast backs is a better choice.
Looking at Home Turf vs. Away Turf
All teams representing all kinds of sports prefer to play on their home turf. The familiar layout and the crowds of local fans give them a boost and an extra desire to win.
This tendency stretches to rugby, too, so always take it into consideration.
Where will the match be taking place? How do the competing teams perform on home and away turf? Look into their past patterns to understand how they might perform in the upcoming match.
In addition, if one team has to travel while the other is playing on home turf, the former might experience some travel sickness. This will affect their performance, making it challenging to cover a handicap.
Judging Motivation
Obviously, every player wants to bring a win to their team, but motivation can differ depending on the event and circumstances.
Is the upcoming match crucial, or is it just another small step on the path to something grand? If the team is determined to win at all costs, they will not be thinking of handicaps, so take this fact into account.
Then, there is context. Did these teams meet as competitors at some point in the past? If they have an intense rivalry going, placing handicap bets might be a bad idea because the margin between the victor and the loser will likely be small.
Referee Tendencies
Referees show a different approach to judging rugby matches. Some are more favorable toward open, semi-informal matches, while others are strict and will assign penalties for the slightest misstep.
Look into the referee’s style before placing a bet. This might help you get a better idea of what to expect in the upcoming match.
Stay Safe When Betting
Rugby is undoubtedly exciting, but you need to be careful when placing bets. Always do research before coming to a betting decision.
Decide how much you’re ready to spend well in advance, and be prepared to lose this sum. Otherwise, losing unexpectedly might hit you hard, encouraging you to place more and more bets, which is extremely dangerous.
Practice responsible betting. Stick to what you know, and enjoy challenging your rugby knowledge by placing research-based bets.
