Warriors vs Panthers: Match Preview & Prediction

Warriors

Match Finished

Panthers

Sat 13 Sep 2025, 18:06

The stakes are ruthless: a sudden-death elimination final at Go Media Stadium with a fired-up Auckland crowd and a Penrith side building scary momentum at the right time.

The Warriors get timely reinforcements around the ruck, but Penrith arrive with their spine humming and finals muscle memory to spare.

Warriors form

The Warriors’ second half of the season has been uneven, but this matchup gives them a clear blueprint: lean on their middle to win territory, then let their edges cash in off quick rucks.

Wayde Egan’s return stabilizes their service and short-side decision-making; Jackson Ford’s inclusion helps line speed and edge clean-up.

The flip side: Rocco Berry’s season-ending injury forces backline reshuffles and reduces strike on kick-returns and yardage sets.

If the Warriors can tidy last-play options and keep errors below their season average, their home surge and defensive energy can drag this into an arm wrestle.

Panthers form

Penrith’s surge into September has been emphatic: a late-season win streak underpinned by improved ruck speed, ruthless yardage, and a halfback pulling the strings with repeat sets and long-kick pressure.

However, they are without starting hooker Mitch Kenny (hamstring), making Luke Sommerton’s control in the middlepivotal.

With Brian To’o and Liam Martin named, Penrith regain crucial metres on kick returns and edge-line steel.

Their yardage sets can suffocate opponents if they own play-one/-two momentum. Expect them to target the Warriors’ back-three with contestable kicks and turn the screws via territory and discipline.

Context & numbers

• Venue & timing: Elimination final at Go Media Stadium, Auckland – a real home-thump factor for the Warriors.
• Recent trajectory: League-wide consensus paints these finals as unusually open, yet Penrith are broadly viewed as the dangerous floater from outside the top four; the Warriors have tapered after mid-season.
• Momentum note: Penrith’s late run of consecutive wins frames their confidence and method heading in.

Tactical hinges

• Middle rotation & ruck speed: If the Warriors can slow Penrith’s first three tackles, Cleary’s long-kick territory game loses bite; if not, repeat-set pressure will mount.
• Hooker battle: Egan’s control vs Sommerton’s composure; one loose set at dummy-half either way could swing periods of momentum.
• Edge defence under aerial traffic: To’o’s yardage and contestable kicks into corners will test the Warriors’ back-field chemistry without Berry.

Warriors vs Panthers: Best Odds

Prediction for Warriors vs Panthers

The Warriors will bring an emotional home lift and, with Egan back, look more cohesive around the ball. But Penrith’s finals nous, territory control, and late-season surge tilt the percentages their way – even with the Kenny outs.

In a game that starts trench-heavy and opens up late, Penrith’s kick-pressure and yardage sets should tell over 80 minutes.

Panthers 24–16 (≈58–62% win probability).