NRL Qualifying Final: Storm vs Bulldogs Prediction
Finals rematch at AAMI Park. A week-one blockbuster between the no-nonsense Storm and the reborn Bulldogs who’ve muscled their way into the top-four.
Just three weeks ago Melbourne edged the Dogs 20–14 here; now the stakes and the noise will be much bigger.
Melbourne Storm — state of play
Melbourne arrive with a double-chance and a chip on the shoulder after a reality check against the Roosters.
The good news: their spine is close to full strength again, with Jahrome Hughes back steering alongside Cameron Munster and Harry Grant.
Depth at fullback was tested late, but the expectation is that the No.1 role will be adequately covered for finals.
The Storm’s edge forwards remain a major lever in yardage and kick-pressure, and Bellamy’s sides historically tidy up discipline and last-tackle options in September.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs — state of play
Canterbury’s surge has been built on intent without the ball and strike off Burton–Crichton. Smashing Penrith (even a heavily rotated one) gave them belief and table position.
One big watch is on the back-three: with Jacob Kiraz likely unavailable early in the finals, the Dogs may need to juggle yardage sets and kick-returns, placing extra load on their edges and middle to start sets on the front foot.
Key levers & match-ups
- Kicking battle: Burton’s aerial raids vs. Hughes/Munster’s territorial smarts. Melbourne must be rock-solid under the high ball; the Dogs must win the yardage after contestable bombs.
- Ruck speed & discipline: Grant vs. Canterbury’s middle rotation; whichever side controls the ruck and avoids late-set penalties will tilt the field.
- Edges under stress: Storm’s back-row runners onto shorter defenders vs. Crichton’s reads and Dogs’ scramble. One misread in transition D can swing a final.
Storm vs Bulldogs: Best Odds
| 🏈 ️ Bookmaker | ⚡️ Storm Win | 💎 Bulldogs Win |
|---|---|---|
| 🏈 ️ TAB | 1.50 | 2.60 |
| 🏈 ️ 20Bet | 1.48 | 2.60 |
| 🏈 ️ Bet 365 | 1.45 | 2.75 |
| 🏈 ️ Stake | 1.50 | 2.55 |
| 🏈 ️ 22Bet | 1.51 | 2.65 |
Prediction for Storm vs Bulldogs
It’s a tighter, nastier sequel to Round 25. Melbourne’s big-game muscle memory at AAMI Park, steadier spine, and slightly healthier roster tip the balance — but the Dogs’ defensive grit keeps it within a score.
Tip: Storm by 4–8 (something like 22–16).
Why:
- Home final + recent H2H edge at the same venue.
- Hughes’ return restores structure on both sides of the ball.
- Bulldogs’ momentum is real, but likely diminished back-three punch without Kiraz in week one.
