Grand Final 2025: Storm vs Broncos – Match Preview & Prediction

Storm

vs

Broncos

Sun 5 Oct 2025, 21:30

Accor Stadium under lights, Sunday 5 October, 9:30pm – a title on the line and two heavyweights with very different pathways here.

The Storm arrive with a refreshed first-choice spine and a week off; the Broncos come in after a famous Suncorp comeback that dethroned Penrith.

Expect a territorial grind shaped by kick-pressure, ruck speed, and back-three yardage – classic grand final footy.

Melbourne Storm form

The story is the spine. Jahrome Hughes’ mid-September return restored Melbourne’s orchestration alongside Munster and Harry Grant, with Ryan Papenhuyzen adding kick-return metres and counterpunch.

Shawn Blore’s return bolsters the edge rotation, but the notable absence of Nelson Asofa-Solomona (suspension) puts greater middle responsibility on Stefano Utoikamanu, Tui Kamikamica, and Trent Loiero.

Melbourne’s blueprint: win play-one/-two contacts, kick to corners with Hughes, and convert repeat-set pressure through Grant’s deception in good-ball. In this fixture they also hold a profound historical edge.

Brisbane Broncos form

Brisbane ride in on belief after a 16-14 prelim stunner: Adam Reynolds iced it late, Reece Walsh stretched the field, and the pack absorbed Penrith’s surges.

Selection-wise, Pat Carrigan returns from suspension to anchor the ruck; the hooker picture is the intrigue—with Billy Walters out (ACL), Ben Hunt can start at nine, squeezing Cory Paix and leaving Tyson Smoothy as the utility option.

Ezra Mam is available after a hamstring scare and remains the edge trigger when the middle compresses. The Broncos’ path: front-load effort through Payne Haas/Carrigan, let the back-three win yardage, and let Reynolds/Mam own last-tackle strategy while Walsh punishes broken field.

Tactical hinges

Head-to-head: Since 1998, Melbourne lead 43–15 overall; they also handled Brisbane in August (22–2)—relevant for sightlines and matchup rhythm.

Ruck speed & middle minutes: With NAS suspended, Utoikamanu/Kamikamica/Loiero must still win contact early; if Brisbane’s Haas/Carrigan tilt the ruck, Walsh gets to the edges in stride.

Halves and last-tackle polish: Hughes’ long-kick vise vs Reynolds’ end-set craft. Territory and repeat sets will dictate the scoreboard tempo.

Hooker control: Grant’s tempo and choice on tackle five vs the Broncos’ solution at nine (Hunt/Paix/Smoothy). One messy set at dummy-half can flip momentum in a low-margin final.

Back-three yardage & aerials: Papenhuyzen/Coates vs Walsh’s back-field — clean contests on bombs and play-one carries are non-negotiable for both sides.

Storm vs Broncos: Best Odds

Prediction for Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos

Brisbane’s ceiling is undeniable – Walsh’s acceleration plus Reynolds’ composure can bend any game—and Carrigan’s return hardens the middle.

But Melbourne arrive healthier in key decision-making roles, with grand-final-grade territory control and a historical edge in this matchup.

In an arm-wrestle that opens late, Grant/Hughes should tilt possession and position just enough for Melbourne’s edges to cash in.

Prediction for Storm vs Broncos:

Storm 20–16 (≈55–59% win probability).