Raiders vs Sharks: Match Preview & Prediction

Raiders

Match Finished

Sharks

Sat 20 Sep 2025, 21:50

Sudden-death semi-final in Canberra. The minor premiers Raiders must pick themselves up after a golden-point gut-punch; the fifth-placed Sharks roll in off a convincing 20–10 elimination win.

A packed GIO Stadium and crisp night air set the stage for a trench-heavy arm-wrestle decided by last-tackle polish and back-three yardage.

Raiders form

Canberra name an unchanged 17, leaning into their power middle of Tapine–Papalii to generate ruck speed for Fogarty and a red-hot Ethan Strange (six tries in his last four).

Expect disciplined exits, an aggressive kick-chase and repeat-set pressure to keep Cronulla buried in corners.

The Green Machine have been prolific at home, clearing 24+ points in their last eight at GIO, and they edged this matchup 24–20 back in Round 5 thanks to Sebastian Kris’s late winner.

Sharks form

Cronulla’s spine looks settled with Hynes–Trindall steering and Blayke Brailey’s tempo at nine, while Addin Fonua-Blake headlines a huge pack.

Tom Hazelton has been named among the reserves as he races the clock after missing Week 1; Briton Nikora and Siosifa Talakai offer impact in the rotations.

Their blueprint is familiar: win yardage on play-one/-two, kick to the corners, and squeeze territory; it worked in the 20–10 dismissal of the Roosters.

Trend lines

Raiders have won only one of their last five finals. Sharks have won only one of their last six at GIO. Mulitalo has 6 tries in 8 finals, and Strange has 6 in his last 4.

Raiders vs Sharks: Best Odds

Prediction for Raiders vs Sharks

Cronulla’s Week-1 method and Hynes’s game management are real threats, but home-field, a settled Raiders 17, and Canberra’s ability to build scoreboard pressure at GIO nudge this their way.

In a grind that opens late, expect the Raiders’ middle to create just enough good-ball for Fogarty/Strange to cash in.

Prediction: Raiders 22–18 (≈55–58% win probability).