Broncos vs Panthers: Match Preview & Prediction
Preliminary final at a heaving Suncorp Stadium on Sunday, 28 September (4:05 pm AEST) – a grand-final ticket on the line.
Brisbane get bodies back but lose two pillars of their spine/pack; Penrith arrive with their five-peat bid roaring after a demolition job last week.
Broncos form
Brisbane’s week has revolved around their spine puzzle. Adam Reynolds is tracking to return at halfback from a hamstring strain, with Ezra Mam close and Ben Hunt now the flexible chess piece who can play six or nine depending on Cory Paix’s fitness after a back scare at training.
The bad news: Pat Carrigan is suspended, and hooker Billy Walters is out long-term with an ACL, removing two key engines in the middle/ruck.
The blueprint without Carrigan: front-load effort through Payne Haas, lean on yardage from the back three, let Reynolds/Mam (or Reynolds/Hunt) kick to corners, and unleash Reece Walsh off quick rucks and broken field. Discipline on the last tackle and clean catching under contestables are non-negotiables.
Panthers form
Penrith just put 46–26 on the Bulldogs and looked like September specialists again: Nathan Cleary’s long-kick vise, relentless back-five meters, and ruthless red-zone shape.
Health-wise, Liam Martin says he’s fine after a late scare, and workhorse hooker Mitch Kenny is back in the 17 and got through minutes, stabilising service around the ruck.
Expect Penrith to hammer early-set carries, pin Brisbane with territorial pressure, and test the Broncos’ back field with contestables before turning repeat sets into scoreboard pressure.
Context & numbers
Fixture/venue: Preliminary Final, Suncorp Stadium, Sun 28 Sep, 4:05 pm AEST.
Recent path: Broncos edged the Raiders 29–28 in golden point; Panthers thumped the Bulldogs 46–26 to reach this stage.
2025 H2H note: In Round 9 (Magic Round at Suncorp), Penrith beat Brisbane 32–8 – a handy pointer on these sightlines.
Broncos vs Panthers: Best Odds
| 🏈 ️ Bookmaker | ⚡️ Broncos Win | 💎 Panthers Win |
|---|---|---|
| 🏈 ️ SpinBet | 2.1 | 1.72 |
| 🏈 ️ Neds Betting | 2.1 | 1.73 |
| 🏈 ️ Stake | 2.11 | 1.71 |
| 🏈 ️ 20Bet | 2.06 | 1.77 |
| 🏈 ️ 22Bet | 2.1 | 1.73 |
Prediction for Broncos vs Panthers
Suncorp and Walsh’s strike give Brisbane real upside, but across 80 minutes Penrith’s territory control, back-five metres, and finals nous are better bankable—especially with Carrigan out and the Broncos’ halves/hooker mix unsettled. Cleary’s game management should tilt possession and position until cracks appear.
Panthers 22–16 (≈56–60% win probability).
